Factors affecting the market value of XRP, irrespective of speculation
Feb 20, 2018
Now I won't attempt to put a dollar value prediction out there, that's just a waste of time and even if I was right, I'm wrong, because I was lucky. Anybody, any news article, any company, and especially any fool's Technical Analysis (converging fucking triangles are my favorite), attempting to predict price direction or values, is utterly and completely full of shit.
The past few years are soooo riddled with stupid prediction after stupid prediction, catering to the psychic-seeking greedy twits that just want some relief from the stress of waiting for their coin of choice to parabolically vindicate their investment decisions. Please just ignore these fortune tellers; I'm going to tell you what actually drives this market.
In order of influence:
1) WHALE bots! Thousands of very BIG holders have software performing trades on their behalf on every exchange, in real-time, in virtually every asset. Because of their sizable positions, they create buy/sell walls (some visible, some not), and they artificially dampen the price with thousands of micro sales during periods of low volatility to make the price seem like it's crashing, shaking out loose hands so they can lap up your cheap XRP, etc. These bastards are 90% responsible for whatever price we see. In other words, whales pick the target price, their bot minions execute; all perfectly immorally legal.
2) Whale collaboration. Yes, they work together, either organically or in collusion (otherwise they'd be battling each other and it just wouldn't work), and they have a specific agenda for setting the prices such that they achieve certain public perceptions.
The first XRP parabolic back in early 2017 was somewhat related to the XRP planned-lockup news, but the massive gains in price back then (40x) was also "intended" to bring XRP out of obscurity and front-and-center into crypto-traders' awareness. Parabolic moves are "coordinated and timed" price pumps that serve to attract new capital from fresh investors; like flies are attracted to a bug zapper. There's nothing natural about a 4000% increase.
And it worked, tens of thousands of fresh investors dove in, hoping the parabolic would continue, but unfortunately the majority of them got shaken out with the months-long decline to 20 cents, the whales feeding on their XRP krill the whole time, creating a large population of XRP-haters decrying XRP as the "scam-coin". That feast finally dried up as all that was left were serious hodlers.
Then, after months of great news that failed to budge the price, out of nowhere, the next whale-facilitated XRP parabolic to $3.60 hit in December/January, rewarding all the resolute and battle-weary hodlers with massive gains, and drawing a HUGE new influx of new investor money. But AGAIN, the whales chomped away at all the coins they shook out with their gradual price decline manipulation down to well below $1, creating a whole new generation of XRP-haters (I'll explain further down why that doesn't matter).
Another HUGE motivation for whales to produce 2017's year-end parabolic is to not only gain widespread notoriety from the fact that XRP mooned in 2017 (placing it in the highly visible top 3, yet strategically not quite number 1..), but also resets the 'baseline' value for 2018 as we enter into the "new year", for the hotly-awaited series of further parabolics. If we were still at 20 cents going into 2018, then investors wouldn't think it could get much past $3 in a year, but if we start 2018 at $2 (which is only a month difference), then investors would think it could easily get to $10. See!
By resetting the baseline, and capitalizing on the artificial boundary of the 'year', a blinder has been set up and the price has much less resistance to further exponential 2018 gains. If Ripple's business does very well this year, with few significant price increases, I would expect year-end 2018 to also follow this pattern (not suggesting those prices in any way though).
I know you all want to believe that natural market forces are at play and that it's a fair playing field for all, but that's just not reality. If you want to survive XRP's ride, hold, close your eyes, and come back in a year. Don't be bullied by these psych-out tactics. There is nothing natural about the price of XRP, or any of these coins in this unregulated wild-west.
That doesn't mean XRP's not a real product, or that it's uniquely manipulated any more than any of the other coins, it just means that the big holders want to mindfuck you into giving up your coins.
Have faith that things always correct in time, and usually that comes in the form of a parabolic gain. It's important to understand that these parabolics and plateaus really depend on (at least currently) whether there is intrinsic value to Ripple's product-line, alliances, staff, leadership, and technology. Said another way, the whales will do their best to keep the prices low for as long as possible, until they just can't do it any more (their walls get eaten), and they then allow it to correct to the next higher plateau where they'll start playing their psych-out games from this new level.
3) Insider trading. Do you think it was a coincidence that December/January's parabolic was immediately followed by the announcement that 3 of top 5 global money transmitters will be using XRP? Do you also think it's strange that following said announcement, the price barely budged? Welcome to insider trading; everyone on the 'inside' already knew this news and had the chance to get in early. So how are we, the common folks, supposed to ever get a piece of the pie? The only way to catch a parabolic, is to already be invested. You will NEVER be able to time it.
4) Scandal. Coinmarketcap conveniently and without warning removing the korean exchange values from the average price of coins was so slimy and obviously evil, that they all need to go to jail, BUT, this is an unregulated industry, so there's no enforceable culpability, and these types of things that can shake up market confidence will keep happening over and over and over.
Even that Korean Ministry of Justice clown probably made a fortune in the dip after he said they were closing the Korean exchanges. What a shit show. That being said, most scandal is short-lived in the crypto-space, so despite their massive short-term impact, they usually end up forgotten in short order. I would even wrap up "regulation" in the scandal category because historically any regulation that has entered the space has had limited short-term influence.
5) Speculation. (here for posterity but as the title suggests, I won't elaborate)
6) Good or bad news. You're probably banging your head trying to understand why despite endless and profound great news for XRP, it just sits there like dog turd. Well, sadly, news is waaay down the list of influences, and has a hard time overwhelming the forces listed above. This clearly demonstrates the massive majority holdings the whales have.
7) And finally, ultimately: Ripple's product quality. As long as Ripple can deliver on the promise it has sold to the world, it will be unstoppable and unparalleled.
EDIT: To counter many responders' suggestion that the 'only' underlying value to XRP is the value of Ripple, Inc. Be sure to understand the following:
- XRP blockchain can survive if Ripple, Inc collapses for any reason that a company can collapse
- Likewise, should XRP fall out of favor and the price collapses, Ripple, Inc could possibly survive and thrive based on their products alone
- XRP can flourish on public use-cases that have no backing from Ripple, Inc
Therefore, XRP's market value will always be a combination of all factors I mentioned, never just the inherent value of Ripple, Inc.
And here are things that are often perceived as quantifiable "technical" influences, but these are purely psychological influences, in order of greatest misperception of significance:
1) Market Cap. 100% meaningless and the entire concept should be discarded.
2) Technical Analysis. Jeeezus, if I see another MACD crossing I'm going to enucleate myself. TA does not apply folks. Watching XRP over the past year can disprove EVERY single TA approach imaginable. Converging triangles are for kindergarten.
All these minimum-wage geniuses that keep plotting lines and arcs and other indicators, are doing so on EXISTING DATA!, so yes, it does look like they know what they are talking about because it lines up with the past. Well duh, hindsight is 20/20.
Do yourself a favor, bookmark all these psychics' predictions, and come back in 6 months and see how they did. It's embarrassing. Again, even if they're right, they're wrong, because they got lucky. Show us verifiable and consistently correct predictions or don't waste everyone's time. Even my dog is right half the time, and he's dead.
3) FUD. While FUD can sometimes slow progress down, particularly if FUD becomes urban-legend-like ("banks will never use XRP!!"), then yes, it can have a detrimental effect on investors, but believe it or not, investor sentiment barely matters in the bigger picture.
90% of the time FUD is entirely strategic and intended to manipulate. There are plenty of people heavily invested in shitcoins (think penny-stocks), that are desperately trying to get investors to jump into their shitcoin so the price rises. They don't really think XRP is a scam-coin, they just want you to give them your money (which is what we're all doing to each other here, really).
That being said, FUDsters and even decent speculators like you and I, are really really small potatoes in the big picture. Allow me to draw a parallel. Imagine if you had a tricycle, and your buddy had a wagon, and your sister had a pogo stick, and all of you are racing down a mile of train track to see who's the best racer, and during the race you are all constantly pulling on each other, trying to cheat and trick each other into slowing down or going the wrong direction.
Yes, it's good wholesome fun, but while you guys are goofing around, calling each other names, trying to trip each other, flinging snot...there's a QUADRILLION DOLLAR express train on the horizon and it's bearing down fast. It won't care if you hate banks, it won't care about your goddam shit coins, and it won't care if you make mean tubes castigating XRP as a banker's coin. That fucking train is going to plow through you and your ideals like you don't even exist.
So while the FUD rumor mill is great click-bait for ad-based sites to lure you in with, it won't make a smoke's bit of difference when the big financial boys come to town; they don't see you, they certainly won't be listening, they won't be reading your blogs (except mine), or watching your tube pontifications; they'll just be looking where to plug XRP into their Borg train to make it go faster.
We, my friends, are mere bugs, and all the FUD in the world won't change XRP's destiny.
Now, do I like the fact that the rich get richer, and the banks keep control of everything, and humankind's indentured servitude is further solidified? Well, you can blame the system for all your suffering in life, or you could eat the red pill and go live in the forest like our ancestors. Take your pick. Option 3, the 1% share with us, won't happen. As a wise man once alluded to, there'll be tanks in the streets before we'll ever break bread with the rich.
In summary, there is only one way to invest in XRP, buy and hold, through good and bad, and let time reward you. If you think I am cynical, then you are not nearly cynical enough. Don't be played. Buy, hold, come back when you're rich on the backs of all those that are yet to come into this boiling vat of lawless human greed. There is only one coin in existence that a train the size of a planet can ride on, and it's XRP.
Hodl. There, I said it.
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